基于广义可加模型和案例推理的东南太平洋智利竹筴鱼中心渔场预报

根据2001～2008年我国渔船在东南太平洋海域的智利竹筴鱼生产统计数据以及同期卫星遥感数据反演的海表温度、叶绿素浓度、海表温度梯度等数据,利用广义可加模型定量分析了智利外海竹筴鱼资源分布同环境因子的关系。根据GAM模型的研究结果,确定海表温度作为竹筴鱼中心渔场预报指标。利用案例推理方法,通过三级相似检索对智利竹筴鱼中心渔场进行预报。试验性预报实例的结果与渔船实际作业情况比较表明,预报精度达到68%,能一定程度上反映竹筴鱼资源的分布。     

Animal Consciousness and Ethics in Asia and the Pacific

The interactions between humans, animals and the environment have shaped human values and ethics, not only the genes that we are made of. The animal rights movement challenges human beings to reconsider interactions between humans and other animals, and maybe connected to the environmental movement that begs us to recognize the fact that there are symbiotic relationships between humans and all other organisms. The first part of this paper looks at types of bioethics, the implications of autonomy and the value of being alive. Then the level of consciousness of these relationships are explored in survey results from Asia and the Pacific, especially in the 1993 International Bioethics Survey conducted in Australia, Hong Kong, India, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, The Philippines, Russia, Singapore and Thailand. Very few mentioned animal consciousness in the survey, but there were more biocentric comments in Australia and Japan; and more comments with the idea of harmony including humans in Thailand. Comparisons between questions and surveys will also be made, in an attempt to describe what people imagine animal consciousness to be, and whether this relates to human ethics of the relationships. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

1975—2005年中亚土地利用/覆被变化对森林生态系统碳储量的影响

土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)对碳循环的影响研究已覆盖全球绝大多数地区,但中亚LUCC对森林生态系统碳库的影响仍属未知。论文以人工林面积、森林产品收获产量及林地转移面积为基础数据,应用Bookkeeping模型,分析了1975—2005年期间三种LUCC方式对中亚森林碳库的影响。近30 a LUCC对其碳库的影响总体表现为碳汇,固碳量为3.07 Tg。植树造林表现出强烈的碳汇功能,总固碳量为12.97 Tg。森林采伐是最主要的碳释放来源,共释放碳5.80 Tg。林地转移呈现较强的碳释放特征,共排放为4.10 Tg。结果表明1975—2005年该区域LUCC对森林碳库具有明显的增汇效应。研究结果将有利于减少LUCC对全球碳收支影响的不确定性。     

亚洲地区OMI和SCIAMACHY臭氧柱总量观测结果比较

利用臭氧观测仪(OMI)和扫描成像大气吸收光谱仪(SCIAMACHY)传感器反演的臭氧总量数据,结合从世界臭氧与紫外线辐射数据中心(WODUC)获取的地面观测臭氧总量数据进行验证,对比2种不同卫星遥感反演的臭氧总量产品优缺点,并分析亚洲地区臭氧总量的时空特征.结果表明,OMI反演的结果比SCIAMACHY的结果更好,而且具有更高的时间和空间分辨率.臭氧总量存在明显的季节变化,在低纬度地区最大值出现在4或5月,最小值在11或12月,而在高纬度地区则分别出现在2月或3月和8月或9月.臭氧总量纬度地带性分布明显,并随着纬度增加而逐渐上升,在10°N~30°N之间,臭氧总量增长平缓,在30°N~50°N之间,臭氧总量快速增大.在青藏高原地区出现臭氧低值区,并在青藏高原东面的横断山脉向低纬度延伸,隔断了臭氧总量的纬度地带性分布.臭氧总量变化在不同纬度呈现不同的模式,距平值随纬度的增大波动随之增大.纬度最低的站点(216)臭氧总量距平值变化最小,最大只有30 DU;而纬度最高的站点(326)臭氧总量距平值变化可达180 DU以上.     

重庆近48年来高温天气气候特征及其环流形势

利用重庆23个气象观测站1960~2007年逐日最高气温观测资料，NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集中的高度场格点资料，运用EOF、REOF等方法，探讨重庆高温日数的空间分布特征，并对多高温天气的2006年和少高温天气年7~8月的环流特征进行了分析。结果表明：重庆高温天气主要出现在7~8月份，高温日数具有显著的年代际和区域性差异，20世纪70年代最多，80年代最少，沿长江、乌江为高温多发带。一致性异常分布是重庆高温日数的最主要空间模态；高温日数的异常空间分布可分为以下3个关键区：重庆中西部、重庆东南部、重庆东北部。乌拉尔山至鄂霍次克海地区阻塞高压偏弱，东亚大槽偏浅；100 hPa 高空南亚高压偏东,500 hPa 高空副高偏北偏西，形成一种上高下高的叠加形势是重庆7~8月出现多高温天气的主要原因。     

中亚地区气候生产潜力时空变化特征

根据中亚5 国100 个气象站1901-2000 年月平均温度和降水资料,运用Miami、Thornthwaite Memorial 模型对中亚地区气候生产潜力进行了计算,用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall 法、并结合ArcGIS 和SPSS 对其时空变化特征及驱动力进行了分析。结果表明：①中亚地区100 a 降水气候生产潜力（Yr）和蒸散气候生产潜力（Ye）均呈逐渐增加的趋势,温度气候生产潜力（Yt）趋势相反,Yr 和Ye 均发生了4 次突变,Yt 没有发生突变;②气候生产潜力区域差异明显,其中,Yt 呈从西南向东北减少的趋势,Yr 和Ye 变化比较复杂,大致具有东部大于西部的规律;③增温增湿的气候变化趋势有利于中亚气候生产潜力的提高,中亚气候生产潜力对增湿的响应更敏感。     

An evaluation of occupational accidents in the wooden furniture industry - A regional study in South East Asia

Studies on the rate of occupational accidents among workers in the wooden furniture industry is sparse, although the industry is deemed to be highly accident prone. Therefore, the rate of occupational accidents among workers in the wooden furniture industry in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam were studied, in 240 furniture manufacturing factories, using a structured questionnaire. The findings of the study suggest that contract workers are less prone to occupational accidents compared to their permanent counterparts, and hence, are more productive. Further, the results also revealed that the contract workers have a more positive attitude towards the work, and hence, pick up the essentials of safe working practices quickly. It must therefore be recognized that the “production oriented mentality” prevalent in the wooden furniture industry, which has been argued to compromise occupational safety and health standards in the industry may be debatable. In this context, it is essential for the policy makers to re-examine the employment of contract workers for the furniture manufacturing industry, as changing the psycho-economic parameters of the industry may be warranted before the industry is deemed attractive to a permanent workforce.     

Species composition of the international shark fin trade assessed through a retail‐market survey in Hong Kong

The shark fin trade is a major driver of shark exploitation in fisheries all over the world, most of which are not managed on a species‐specific basis. Species‐specific trade information highlights taxa of particular concern and can be used to assess the efficacy of management measures and anticipate emerging threats. The species composition of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, one of the world's largest fin trading hubs, was partially assessed in 1999–2001. We randomly selected and genetically identified fin trimmings (n = 4800), produced during fin processing, from the retail market of Hong Kong in 2014–2015 to assess contemporary species composition of the fin trade. We used nonparametric species estimators to determine that at least 76 species of sharks, batoids, and chimaeras supplied the fin trade and a Bayesian model to determine their relative proportion in the market. The diversity of traded species suggests species substitution could mask depletion of vulnerable species; one‐third of identified species are threatened with extinction. The Bayesian model suggested that 8 species each comprised >1% of the fin trimmings (34.1–64.2% for blue [Prionace glauca], 0.2–1.2% for bull [Carcharhinus leucas] and shortfin mako [Isurus oxyrinchus]); thus, trade was skewed to a few globally distributed species. Several other coastal sharks, batoids, and chimaeras are in the trade but poorly managed. Fewer than 10 of the species we modeled have sustainably managed fisheries anywhere in their range, and the most common species in trade, the blue shark, was not among them. Our study and approach serve as a baseline to track changes in composition of species in the fin trade over time to better understand patterns of exploitation and assess the effects of emerging management actions for these animals.     

西藏巴松措冷季水化学特征及其影响因素

于2018年12月（冷季）,结合水体现场理化参数和入湖河流,湖泊表层,湖泊垂直分层及出水口各样点水样分析结果对其水化学组成和分布特征以及影响因素进行了研究.结果表明,冷季巴松措水体呈弱碱性.湖区TDS含量较低,平均值仅达107mg/L.湖区平均水温为5.7℃,在水深45~60m范围内存在温度跃变,但变化梯度较小.空间上,各现场理化参数值从入湖河流到湖泊表层且沿垂直方向至最深处均有一定的变化规律,但是这些变化并无显著性差异（P>0.05）.巴松措湖泊水体溶解相中,Ca²⁺和HCO₃^-为主导离子,分别占阳离子和阴离子总量的80.35%和72.95%.各主要离子浓度在平面空间分布上表现为入湖河流高于湖泊表层,汇入湖泊后趋于平稳的趋势.在垂直空间分布上却呈随水深增加而轻微增大的趋势.巴松措水化学类型为HCO₃·SO₄-Ca型.流域内受岩石风化作用的影响,特别是碳酸盐岩的风化过程是影响巴松措水化学组成和分布特征的主要控制因素.     

新疆塔城黄土的形成

中亚黄土是研究区域古气候和古环境变化的重要载体。但是对于受到广泛研究的黄土 高原黄土来说,对中亚东部塔城黄土的报道较少。基于对塔城黄土粒度的系统分析,与伊犁盆 地黄土、典型黄土高原的黄土对比,我们发现无论是粒度频率曲线、粒度结构散点图、还是三 角图,塔城黄土与伊犁盆地清水河黄土较相似,而与黄土高原黄土不同,塔城黄土粒度频率分 布曲线为三峰分布,粒度组成比较分散,分选较差,细、中颗粒含量较少,主要以粗颗粒物质 为主,属近源风成黄土。结合当地地形和现代环流分析,我们认为中亚萨雷耶西克阿特劳沙漠 为塔城黄土提供主要的物源,盛行西风为粉尘的搬运提供足够的动力,向西开口的山间盆地地 形为粉尘的沉积提供有利的沉积中心,这三个条件的共同作用导致了塔城盆地厚层黄土的沉积。